Hi All,

Thank you for all your advice on my previous question. Im in a bit of a dilemna now as I just found out that by getting my yellow fever vaccine tomorrow, by the time I arrive Im short of the 10 day wait and will be in Iquitos for 2-3 days without coverage. The doctor was very alarmed and said it would be a big mistake to not change my ticket and go later because of the 50% chance of death if it is contracted. But my ticket is v expensive to change so Im wondering if anyone knows what the risks are at the moment and whether I should just go anyway?

Thanks a tonne

Doctor tells you that you need to delay your trip or face a 50% chance of dying if you contract Yellow Fever......for me this would be a no brainer. My life is worth a bit more than a change fee.

suerte
SAM

No, the point was, IF, there were yellow fever there now and IF I got bitten and contracted it then there would be a 50% chance of death. Id hardly go if there was just a 50% chance of death. For this reason im trying to work out what the risk of there being yellow fever now.

And my point being why do you think a shot for Yellow Fever is necessary for travel there? There maybe no reported cases today and 40 a few days later. There are regular outbreaks of Yellow Fever in the Amazon regions so it's a crap shot...a gamble. Is that gamble worth it to you?

I would tell you my advise but to contradict a doctor (who will say the most conservative of numbers) would get me in a lawsuit if the small percentage does happen.

I, personally, do not know what the situation is to ascertain the chances of contracting yellow fever in the jungles of Peru. I think there is an outbreak of dengue fever and increased malaria incidences in certain parts of Latin America & have been necessarily forewarned to get the necessary vaccination should I contemplate on traveling these areas of the world.

In the end, I think we are riding on chances here. It's always good to err on the side of caution, than to be sorry later. Goodluck in your Peruvian adventure!

I would ask also another doctor for advise.
My mother got yellow fever after months of traveling in Latin America. She went to a local hospital and recovered after several months.

I think there are two stadiums. Only 20 to 30% of people who get yellow feber die. If you don't cover it can come to this second stadium which is a lot more dangerous.

I find it difficult to believe that some VT posters would make some of the above statements based on what??? Not much.

For your information the Pan American Health Organization ( a part of the World Health Organization which is part of the UN) reported 23 cases of Yellow Fever in Peru in 2007. Of the 23, 18 died. I will let you do the math on that one. This wasn't 23 that went into the toxic phase, but a grand total of 23 confirmed cases. And 2007 was a good year, unlike previous years when the number of cases and deaths in Peru were much higher.

But maybe the PAHO and WHO are just being conservative so they don't get sued. Unreal...

Suerte
SAM

Again...the numbers are based on CHANCES! If we roll the dice and based on thousands (even hundreds of thousands) of people living and/or visiting in Peru, PAHO/WHO (as you indicated here) confirms 23 cases of which nearly 80% die from it, then these confirmed cases are not statistically generalizable--they're merely based on purposive/convenience sampling from available, perhaps limited, data. The real numbers may be higher or lower, who knows?! The operative word here is SAFETY first more than anything else.

...I meant to say also that those 23 confirmed cases are based on thousands (hundreds of thousands of people) living/visiting in Peru. Yes, CHANCES; but statistically insignificant it may be, there is still the RISK of contracting yellow fever. And once you do, the chances of death can be as high as 80%!!!

The lesson here is to not be too cavalier about the risks we face everyday in life, whether we live in NY, London, or wherever, and could potentially be targets of terrorism, petty crime, grand theft auto, or vicious crimes (knock on wood!).

...And I meant to say that the data may be limited, thus the #'s could be higher.

Again, goodluck in your upcoming Peruvian adventure!